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November 8, 2004

After a weekend of significant politicking, there are a lot of things to consider from both sides of the spectrum as the looming election date of May 17th draws ever near.

For Premier Gordon Campbell, this was a weekend to rework his image.  The BC Liberal convention held in Whistler was a chance for the Premier to show himself as capable of investing in social spending - $70 a vote for the disabled community, the seismic upgrades of all BC schools within 15 years, new money for diagnostic testing of children for sight, hearing and teeth before Grade 1 - after the severe and drastic cuts of the past three years.  In fact, Campbell promised to lead the province into a "golden decade" of prosperity, which according to the Premier's newly emerged conscience, will now include all of those that have been left behind over the past three years, one can only assume.

The funny thing is, some of the Premier's biggest political problems over the course of the weekend originated from within - former Cabinet colleague Christy Clark publicly criticizing the government for not providing enough opportunities for women, several ethnic communities complaining that they have ignored, and most shockingly, Finance Minister Gary Collins delivering some of the largest backhanded compliments Campbell has ever received in front of his politically faithful.

These are all warning signs of the writing on the wall that awaits Gordon Campbell following the election - namely that his time as leader of the BC Liberal party is limited.  Long in advance of the open leadership battles poised to ensue, however, the BC Liberals must first demonstrate a couple things over the next 190 days.  First, that all British Columbians are better off now with a relatively prosperous economy than they were before the government gutted the system to achieve their fiscal standing.  Secondly, and much more importantly, they are obliged to prove that they are not beholden to an elite group of interests if they are to once again enamour the voting public.

The NDP, on the other hand, has its own set of challenges to overcome before the election.  The major event of the weekend transpired yesterday, when over 500 New Democrat members showed up to pick a candidate for the Vancouver-Fairview riding.  This was a major battle, not only because it was so hotly contested within the party, but also because the winner would face off against Gary Collins, the government's Number 2 man.

Gregor Robertson, co-founder of the wildly successful Happy Planet juice company, and one of the Globe and Mail's top 40 under 40, won a surprisingly decisive victory over long time union boss Judy Darcy (she was the president of CUPE for many years).  This battle was about Darcy's support from the traditional NDP base, which included many of the party's heavyweights, against a new breed of membership, which included a broad coalition of former Green party activists, environmentalists, and youth.  Now this isn't to say that Robertson wasn't able to attract other support - he won by 76 votes on the second ballot - but only to suggest that a changing of the guard was clear in the room.

This is a great battle for the NDP to have publicly played out on the front page of the Vancouver Sun this morning.  While Darcy would have been a wonderful candidate to run along side Robertson, this is exactly the kind of infusion into the public consciousness that the party needed.  Gregor Robertson is most definitely green in more ways than one, but he should grow into his role and provide credible opposition for Collins.

NDP leader Carole James also spoke at the meeting, and her improvement since taking over the reins of the party last year is significant.  She was funny, showed strength, and a genuine compassion that the BC Liberals seem to be sorely lacking.  That being said, they are still miles away from where they need to be before beginning the campaign.  They are currently lost on a fiscal plan and message that will resonate with voters, they must attract more high profile candidates like Robertson to compete, and they to must prove to voters that they are not controlled to special interests like the unions.

For both James and Campbell, each desires what the other currently has a lock on - she needs to show voters that her party can also be financially prudent, while he just wants people to believe that his government actually has a heart.

It will be interesting to see the new outfits each entity chooses to slip on before heading out on the campaign trail.

Comments? jonathan@tdhstrategies.com