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November 26, 2004

It isn't often that the Vancouver Sun provides a fireworks display for its readers, yet that is exactly what happened this morning with duelling headlines standing side by side:

"Liberal MP toys with jump to Green party"

"Mayor may run with new party"

Wow.  Both stories, if true, would change the face of politics within their respective realms. 

There was one time where David Anderson was thought of as one of Paul Martin's biggest political allies on the West coast.  No, David was not a tireless "Martinite" campaigning as hard as caucus colleague Hedy Fry.  Rather, Anderson proved useful in the formative years of the Martin leadership campaign for providing jobs and refuge for some of Martin's highest profile organizers, from guys like Martin's top man in BC Mark Marissen, to recently elected party president in BC, Jamie Elmhirst, to even disgraced lobbyist Erik Bornman.  Whether it was the ongoing promise of jobs to loyal young followers, or the political strength of organizing out of a Senior Minister's office, Anderson was extremely helpful to the current Prime Minister.

Anderson had also been pining for many years to become the Ambassador to Australia following his retirement, as his wife is from that part of the world.

Well, that alliance is long since dead, as Anderson now sits as a disgruntled backbench Liberal MP, pushed from Cabinet by new star recruits like Ujjal Dosanjh and David Emerson.  Much of Anderson's beefs with the government, however, have been grounded in policy, which makes his case of speaking out interesting for its substance.

Anderson has been a long time advocate of progressive environmental policy, a personal passion that predates his time as Minister of Environment.  More recently, he and Herb Dhaliwal were constantly fighting internally about lifting the moratorium on offshore oil and gas drilling (a piece of legislation Anderson drafted as a rookie MP back in 1972), and his frustration with the Kyoto protocol's path of resistance has been loud and contentious for some time now.

Anderson, at this point, would be wise to jump to the Green party.  In terms of policy, he is going to find that his priorities will never have any place of importance within Martin's administration.  By becoming a galvanizing force for the Greens, who many believe are on the verge of a political breakthrough anyways, Anderson would gain more influence and power to impact public opinion than he ever did as a minority backbench MP.  With polling now showing that the environment is at the top of Canadians' list of concerns (above health care and the economy), Anderson could use the next 18 months to build an organization around him that might be able to elect 5 new members come next election.

Mayor Larry Campbell is a phenomenon in Vancouver, far exceeding the popularity of any individual federal, provincial or municipal politician or party in this province.  Without delving into a long diatribe about the internal battles that he has faced with his fellow members of Council (something that can be read about in the above-linked article), Larry would also be wise to make the rumoured jump.  Much like the uphill battle that his television counterpart Dominic Da Vinci is facing in the storylines of the wonderful CBC drama Da Vinci's Inquest (a show loosely based on Campbell's time as Chief Coroner in this city), Campbell as Mayor should not have to swim upstream with every decision he attempts to push forward.

Campbell is a moderate that swept a staunchly left-leaning political entity from the forest to the palace.  Regardless of what any COPE organizer or Councillor might try to spin, COPE would likely be sitting with 2 or 3 seats rather than an overwhelming majority with control of the Mayor's chair, had it not been for Larry's strong and sudden popularity in the last election.

Campbell should strongly consider the implications of trying to begin his own entity, however.  It is an exciting prospect to be sure for moderates looking for an alternative to the divisive politics this city has encountered for much of the past 60 years.  That being said, considerations such as money, vote splitting, political allies and a continued at-large voting system make the proposition somewhat daunting with under a year to go.

Although, with Larry's broad shoulders of public support, and a good group of political operatives by his side, Campbell could conceivably not only walk away with the Mayor's seat once again, but also a majority of Council.

Congratulations to both Larry Campbell and David Anderson, whose bold stylings make hacks who are entirely disenchanted with the landscape in this province excited about politics again.

Comments? jonathan@tdhstrategies.com