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June 17, 2004

Michael Marzolini was the Liberal party pollster for much of the Jean Chretien era, but has now been replaced by Paul Martin's favourite group of friends on the payroll, the Earnscliffe Strategy Group.  This may be a good thing, as the latest poll to be released by Marzolini's Pollara firm is not the kind of Kool-Aid Martin wants to drink, showing the Conservatives at 36% and the Liberals at 31% following the debates.

Before the Conservatives get too excited though, it is essential that they change the tactics that their leader displayed yesterday, which in essence embody the same qualities that Stephen Harper has criticized in Mr. Martin.

While Niagara Falls did not prove to be as embarrassing a campaign stop as it was for Stockwell Day in the 2000 election (north or south???), Harper proved that even he, who showed so much restraint and class during the English debate, can be prone to arrogance.

Some of his quotes from the campaign rally he attended include:

"I've consulted people on transition and will be continuing those consultations over the next few days.  I've always had some reserve plans. As things keep looking up, we'll obviously expand on those consultations and make some announcements as it's appropriate."

"We're headed towards a national majority and I think we're getting closer to that all the time."

The first time Harper began to speak of consultations regarding a transition some weeks back, he got reigned in hard by his advisors and told that it came across as too arrogant.  The question then is, why are these kinds of statements any more palatable now than they were earlier in the campaign?

No matter what any poll says, and regardless of whether this new attitude is an intentional party strategy, this is still an extremely tight race, with both the Liberals and Conservatives showing their own particular strengths.  Confidence is good, and this is exactly what Harper should be buoyed with after his second debate performance.  Publicly speculating on how transition between a Liberal and Conservative government would be facilitated, however, is far beyond the realm of confidence considering the circumstances.

In his speech yesterday, Harper also told his slate of candidates that as long as the party sticks to the platform and continues to speak about the issues that matter to Canadians, then he was confident that the Conservatives could form the next government.

This is the same advice that he himself must continue to heed up until June 28th, when tangible results rather than premature, self-assured predictions can overturn the carefully crafted image of humility that Mr. Harper has been so successful in cultivating.

Comments? jonathan@tdhstrategies.com