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February 5, 2004

First, George W. Bush calls for an independent, bi-partisan investigation into American pre-war intelligence on Iraq, albeit with the President selecting the individuals who will sit on the inquiry's commission.  Then, Tony Blair follows suit by initiating yet another inquiry into British intelligence on Iraq (the fourth of its kind in Britain over the past year), having had his hand forced by Bush's announcement.  Now, Paul Martin has asked Auditor General Sheila Fraser to review the $161 million in federal contracts issued to his family's Canada Steamship Lines, although the results will not be available until well after the federal election.

Although the prospect of independent investigations into each of the above-mentioned issues are crucial to separating the truth from rhetoric, it is extremely hard not to be cynical about the political parameters that these investigations will operate within.

In the case of Bush, not only will he select the composition of the commission, but he will also expand the probe into every aspect of American intelligence and procedure, thereby delaying a resolution until at least 2005, well after the Presidential election.

In terms of Blair, he barely won a vote on raising tuition fees this week (a vote that could have seen the fall of his government if unsuccessful), and despite being exonerated from David Kelly's suicide in Lord Hutton's report, he remains on the ropes politically.  One can only wonder if he was shamed into the investigation by Bush beating him to the punch, or if it was introduced to sure up his electoral fortunes before beginning to campaign.

For Paul Martin, as long as Ms. Fraser is investigating the matter, all questions will fall on deaf ears, as "no comment" answers will be delivered in the interests of maintaining the integrity of the inquiry. 

Sheila Fraser is a tenacious and fearless presence, and will no doubt get to the bottom of these federal grants, whatever the outcome might be.  The only problem is, the investigation will largely remove the government from commenting or responding to questions while it is being carried out before, during and most definitely after the spring election.

The truth might not set Bush, Blair or Martin free, but politics is all about timing, and therefore in the end, the truth might unfortunately be irrelevant.

Comments? jonathan@tdhstrategies.com