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April, 2005 Archives

April 29, 2005 - Outside of saying that it is really no shock that the Liberals are climbing back up in the polls (like TDH said yesterday, get to the issues, and it is an entirely new ballgame), onto a local story.

This is Lorne Mayencourt, a BC Liberal MLA for the downtown riding of Vancouver-Burrard.  This picture shows Mayencourt from his publicity stunt last year, where he slept outside for 5 days to experience what it was like to be without a home.

Mr. Mayencourt is also the genius who introduced the Safe Streets Act into law, where panhandlers deemed "aggressive" are fined and possibly jailed if unable to pay that fine.

Well, fast forward to February, 2005, when Mr. Mayencourt attacked a panhandler that he deemed to be out of line, and came into the Legislature the next day with a nasty scratch on his face.  Here is Mayencourt's bullshit account of events.

Here is the police assessment of Mayencourt's actions:

"Vigilante action against aggressive panhandlers is the wrong solution.  It's a matter of safety," said Const. Howard Chow.

Here is a quote from Michael Smyth's Vancouver Province column published April 10:

"Mayencourt told me he called 911 four times to report the aggressive panhandler and decided to take the law into his own hands after police failed to respond."

Finally, it was revealed yesterday that in the past 3 years, the BC Liberals have doubled homelessness in the province. 

So what we have here is a man that is a part of a government who has exacerbated the problems on the streets, and now plays judge, jury and executioner when not serving as a Member of the Legislative Assembly.

Mayencourt is a disgrace.  Above all else that happens in the election on May 17, this man deserves a swift kick to the curb from the electorate.

April 28, 2005 - Yesterday, TDH Strategies wrote that:

"If Harper has a strategy to weather the storm over bringing the government down in cahoots with the Bloc Québécois, then he seems poised and much better prepared this time for an effective electoral campaign."

Well, today TDH presents the caveats that must go along with this statement.

The sponsorship scandal, while angering people for a couple of minutes, has not penetrated consciousness amongst Canadians such that a) a majority want an election b) the polls have had a drastic shift and c) voters are willing to place blind trust in any party without consideration for policies and issues.

The last qualification is the thing that Stephen Harper should fear the most, for the simple fact that Conservative policies in this country do not have a natural resonance.

TDH Strategies still does not believe that the NDP-Liberal alliance is one that each party is going to see a massive boost from, and again, will state that Harper's line about $4.6 billion to make people forget about corruption is a good one.  That being said, the investments made as a result of the deal are spending commitments that the majority of Canadians will find appealing (a point well put by this Toronto Star editorial).

Meaning that Mr. Harper must have a hell of a lot more depth to his platform this time around if he hopes to gain the crucial votes needed to put the Tories over the top.  There are winners out there for them...the fiscal imbalance in Ontario, Liberal party policies and conduct in the province of Quebec, accountability, transparency and democracy within representation...that can be built over the foundation provided by the sponsorship saga.

There also happens to be a lot of winners that Paul Martin will be able to pull out to accentuate the differences in priorities with the Conservatives, a line that he is already practicing in his open door policy with reporters this past week.

The scare tactics of a fading Canadian flag and supposed hidden agendas will now be replaced by a strategy of defending health care, child care, the environment and possibly most importantly, education.  These are policy battles that Martin is likely, and eager, to take on the campaign trail.

Because when it comes down to it, Harper might not have enough in his bag of tricks to provide a comfortable alternative that Canadians would be willing to accept.

April 27, 2005 - TDH Strategies figures that yesterday's $4.6 billion deal between the NDP and Liberals helps Stephen Harper much more than it does the leaders that put pen to paper.

This quote from Harper following the announcement was brilliant, and exactly the tone he needed to strike:

"My first response to Mr. Martin and Mr. Layton is that if $4.6-billion is the price it takes for corruption to go away, I wonder if the taxpayers of Canada will think the same thing."

Then this morning, from the non-campaign tour of Ontario, Harper has followed up with this:

”I'm flabbergasted at the amount of taxpayers' money these guys are prepared to throw around to keep themselves in office, and I'm flabbergasted at what the NDP prepared to settle for and what they're not prepared to settle for.”

Meanwhile, a simple review of the math shows that the Liberals are still far away from having the numbers for today's vote:

131 Liberals + 19 NDP + 1 independent = 151 votes

Chuck Cadman alone has squashed hopes by saying he will vote against the budget bill, never mind recently departed MP David Kilgour or the deciding vote which would be cast by the Speaker in the event of a tie.

So what is Martin's response?  He is now saying that he will still give the corporate tax breaks, if the Tories support him for the budget.

Which only demonstrates that either the Liberals are prepared to break the bank to survive for another 6 months, or they were completely fudging the figures with the budget they delivered in February (big surprise there).

In typical Martin fashion, he is trying to appease everyone, and in the end, will be unable to live up to the commitments he now makes in desperation.

If Harper has a strategy to weather the storm over bringing the government down in cahoots with the Bloc Québécois, then he seems poised and much better prepared this time for an effective electoral campaign.

April 26, 2005 - Watching Don Newman's Politics program this morning really highlighted the political communication difficulties for all players involved in this electoral brinkmanship currently taking place in Ottawa.

Ipsos Reid's new poll demonstrates two interesting aspects to the political wrangling.  First, Paul Martin instigated virtually no change in the popularity polls by way of his address to the nation.  Like TDH Strategies stated the morning after:

"Desperate times call for desperate measures.  Unfortunately for Martin, his remedy fell well short of the pathos he was trying to inspire."

The Liberals sit at 31 per cent, while the Tories have a three point lead at 34 per cent.  Moreover, 49 per cent of voters think that the speech was a desperate attempt to hold onto power.

On the other hand, the poll confirms that Martin was able to successfully convince Canadians that an election now, rather than one within 30 days of the final Gomery Pyle Commission report, is not a desired outcome - 61 per cent of Canadians want to wait until the findings are publicly available before heading to the polls.  Which, brings us to our second observation.

The communications problems referred to above lie with the fact that the political parties and their crack teams of spinners and strategists are doing a piss poor job of communicating the intricacies of the games going on in the House of Commons.

Pass the budget?  Separate the Maritime offshore oil deal from the bill?  A non-confidence motion - should it come before or after a vote on the budget?  These are all questions that your average Canadian a) doesn't understand and b) doesn't care about.  Meaning, regardless of how angry the electorate apparently is with the Liberals, there still will be a political price to pay for going to the polls right now, and it will be issued by the lowest voter turnout in Canadian history.

If Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe are determined to have an election this spring?  Well, that could work out well.  If the NDP props up the government in a coalition in order to get more monies directed towards to the environment and child care?  Wonderful.  But right now, the politicos are not doing very well in connecting with your average Canadian, seemingly unable to connote importance or comprehension to a disengaged and frustrated electorate just wanting to enjoy the summer.

And that, above all other considerations of scandal, corruption or voter fatigue, is the reason that election talk remains grounded more in hype than substance.

So to all political staffer readers, TDH Strategies is available for strategic communications advice. : )

April 26, 2005 - Here is the new logo for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games, patterned after an Inuit inukshuk:

And here is Vancouver Sun columnist Pete McMartin's brilliant assessment from this morning's paper:

"Ilanaaq [the Inuit word for friend] plays along with that assumption that the rest of the world makes about Canada and Canadian culture:  There isn't any Canadian culture to speak of, other than rocks and ice and Mother Nature, and Inuits carving polar bears out of soapstone (this despite the fact that 99 per cent of British Columbians have never been north of the Arctic Circle, or Prince George, for that matter)."

Sorry, but when you have such a rich history of west coast First Nations, and such world renowned artists as BC's own Bill Reid and his beautiful Raven sculptures, for example, this logo just seems a little out of place.  If for nothing else, the rain or sunshine that will undoubtedly populate the 2 weeks of competition in 2010 will be the environmental antithesis from arctic temperatures, scenery or sentiment.  For Vancouver, the "winter" aspect will be a nice theory on paper, at best.

April 25, 2005  - The fact that the NDP are negotiating with the Liberal government isn't all that shocking, considering that Paul Martin et al. are desperate to delay an election until the fall.  What is surprising, however, is how much weight the promise of NDP support commands, even though cooperation between the government and Jack Layton does not constitute a majority in the house.

Jack has even gone as far as to put a deadline over Martin's head, threatening to pull the offer of support if an agreement over eliminating the corporate tax cuts contained in the budget is not reached.

If this is the kind of power that Layton can wield with a 19 seat performance, just think what he can do if he actually breaks 20 MPs in the House!

Layton had better be very careful, however, because cooperation with the Liberals will not help him at the polls, both in terms of the association, as well as the fact that Layton has yet to put a distinct stamp on his federal party.

April 22, 2005 - It's hard to know where to begin after such a spectacle, so here goes a TDH stream of consciousness.

For the time being, Paul Martin's statement has placed the Prime Minister in political purgatory  - he has jumped off the bullet train to hell, and yet still seems far from angelic for those Canadians that actually took the time to listen last night.

As TDH mentioned yesterday, for Martin to have made a real impact with the electorate, he needed to hit a home run - fire a bunch of his ministers, give the Auditor General sweeping powers and a new mandate, announce a coalition with the NDP - a requirement that he failed to live up to.

Saying you're sorry and announcing an election 8 months from now just doesn't carry the weight needed to knock the Gomery Pyle Commission and associated anger out of the minds and hearts of voters. 

So if the message was anything but earth-shattering, then the next question is whether he was believable.  Well, the answer to that question lies with the ability of Canadians to suspend disbelief.  In other words, while Martin did come across as sincere last night, the real dilemma is whether people can separate his role as Finance Minister from the corruption that was rampant in the Quebec wing of the Liberal Party of Canada (particularly with this revealing testimony delivered by Claude Boulay yesterday, which completely contradicts Martin's earlier denials).

The most damaging part about Martin's gamble however, was the opportunity he provided to his opposition counterparts.  If the prevailing logic from the PMO was that a television address would allow Mr. Martin to rise above the difficulties of communicating to Canadians within the House of Commons, then the rebuttals from Stephen Harper, Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton were even more politically advantageous for each respective leader.

Harper had the advantage of coming on directly after Martin was done, and by contrast and with authority, looked Prime Ministerial in his delivery.  Duceppe only solidified his stranglehold over the only province he elects his caucus from, painting the Liberal party as a blemish on the reputation of Quebecers.  And Layton, while flawed in his continued pandering to Martin's minority government status, looked like a sober and viable second consideration for those centre-left Liberals looking for an alternative.

Herein lies the flawed strategy of Martin's address.  If he was at all able to stop the bleeding of his party's fortunes, it can only be temporary, particularly with the last month of Gomery poised to produce hard hitting revelations that can only renew and further incite the already open wounds.  Meanwhile, his opponents basked in the attention provided by Martin's address to the nation, and took full advantage of it.  Meaning, at best, Martin plateaued the damage for a couple of days, while at the same time lighting a match under the campaigns of the adversaries positioned to take him and his government down.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.  Unfortunately for Martin, his remedy fell well short of the pathos he was trying to inspire.

April 21, 2005 - TDH Strategies will have full coverage of the Paul Martin desperation speech tomorrow morning, so check back then.

However, consider this:

The speech is supposed to be no more than 6 minutes in length.  Now, regardless of how charismatic the dwindling Martinite faithful might believe that their fearless leader is, there is absolutely no way that rhetoric alone is going to do anything to impact public opinion.

Meaning, if Martin spends six minutes delivering a request to "let the commission do its work," a denial stating "I had absolutely no knowledge of wrongdoing,"  and a promise to "put in place measures to ensure that this never happens again," then voters will likely gag in front of their television screens.

On the other hand, if Martin chooses to make a major announcement, such as the dissolution of Parliament or the granting of far reaching powers to the Attorney General, then the incompetence of his advisors will once again be on display for the entire country, in consideration of the emphatic denials of what tonight's speech won't be.

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't, and all as a result of horrible political acumen.  TDH is looking forward to finding out what "the fact of the matter" really is.

April 20, 2005 - Where is the logic with the Liberal government these days? 

Paul Martin et al. have been preaching to the masses as well as their political adversaries that an election should only take place after Justice Gomery Pyle finishes his work.

So someone will have to explain the logic of inflaming the parliamentary atmosphere by delaying all opposition days scheduled until at least the third week in May - a move which has now prompted the likely scenario of a government defeat on May 19, and an election on June 27.

The Tories, having managed to salvage their one day in the spotlight, are now fuming, and ready to go to the polls.  Confirmation of this could be seen in Stephen Harper's confident and forceful press conference introducing former Liberal MNA Lawrence Cannon as a candidate, where he emphatically stated "the Liberal party of Canada is dead in Quebec."

After absorbing the initial shock of hearing such a claim, PARTICULARLY from Stephen Harper, it is extremely hard to argue with his statement.

So, what was Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri thinking as he subverted the democratic processes of Parliament?  Valeri responded with this weak response:

"Unfortunately it's come to this as a result of a sneaky attempt by the Conservatives yesterday to put forward a motion to change the standing orders.   This was an attempt to sneak something through. They're upset because they got caught at the last minute."

This kind of twisted logic has all but eliminated the brinksmanship that had all opposition parties holding true to the line that Canadians would decide when to go to the polls.  Valeri has tried to put his finger in the crack of a dam on the verge of an explosion, and in the process provided enough impetus for Harper, Layton and Duceppe to justify bringing down the government.

The Liberals are floundering, seemingly concerned with attacking one of their own rather than focussing on the preservation of their political futures.

We are on the verge of a rebirth within the Liberal Party of Canada...something that thousands of us have been awaiting for many years.

April 19, 2005 - Thought that the Liberal party's wounds were all healed?  Think again:

"He's as strong a political adversary of Mr. Martin and of myself and of Ms. O'Leary as exists in this country." - David Herle to the Public Accounts Committee, speaking of Warren Kinsella

Yesterday's testimony from Mr. Kinsella was sensational stuff, and underlined the fact that Liberals continue to be divided by the Liberal leadership campaign that put Paul Martin in power after years of dirty politics.

Everyone within Liberal party circles is well aware of how much overlap there was, and still exists between the Earnscliffe Strategy Group and the Martin leadership team.  In fact, it was often very difficult to find the point of differentiation between the origins of paycheques to several high profile organizers.

Mr. Kinsella is the most crafty political operator this country has ever produced, so it is likely that those touched by his revelations will continue to rely on the open schisms to discount his word.  And, to be honest, it is very hard to determine the legitimacy of certain points, such as the alleged personal calls from Paul Martin.

On the other hand, it is absolutely ludicrous to suggest that Terrie O'Leary, while in the Minister's office, had absolutely nothing to do with Earnscliffe (her boyfriend David Herle's employer) and the awarding of a whole slew of contracts that company received over many, many years.  Charges of political interference have now been levied by both Kinsella and Chuck Guité, and Herle and O'Leary had better be damn sure of their lies, considering the hundreds of people that could very well step forward to substantiate the claims of Martin's sphere of contracting control.

Kinsella waxes eloquent on his website about the same understanding that many Liberals attest to, from coast to coast to coast:

"For more than a decade, all of us watched them fight, proverbial tooth and nail, to get Paul Junior into the big chair. And, all of us now see that - once there - Paul Junior has precisely nothing to say, and even less to do. He just wanted to sit in the big chair.

And it's very, very, very sad. Let me be clear about that."

And therein lies the biggest lingering problem that Liberals like Warren and TDH have with the current administration.  They got to where they got to by destroying party unity and crushing anyone who got in there way, and yet for all their grandiose promises and plans, they have been a huge disappointment.

Our prediction?  Paul Martin, largely because of his inability to match action to rhetoric, will be remembered in history for the sponsorship scandal, above all else.  Great leadership involves much more than effective political organizing, which up until this point, has been Martin's most dominant accomplishment.

April 15, 2005 - This is a good story for not only British Columbia's municipalities, but for cities across the country.  TDH Strategies has always been a little sceptical of the "New Deal for Cities," as logistically it has always seemed like another Paul Martin policy better spoken about than actually followed through upon.  So, good on Infrastructure and Communities Minister John Godfrey for moving the commitment forward.

Still, if Messrs. Martin and Godfrey think that today's announcement with a government that is under a week away from an election is going to go as smoothly with every other province, then they are in for a rude awakening. Between McGuinty, Charest and Klein, the feds are going to have their hands full (only in Canada is transferring money such a nightmare of jurisdictional battles).

This article (PAGE 5) penned by TDH for the Hill Times newspaper in January, 2004 asks many of the questions that have yet to be answered about the implementation of this ambitious plan.

April 14, 2005 - Today's commentary (found below) tends to put TDH Strategies in the minority, it seems, after scanning our other fellow writers such as CG and Mr. Wells.  One point to consider, gentleman...go check the polls on the priority list of Canadians, and health care still dwarfs corruption.  But more importantly, the average Canadian will not make the distinction between prominent former Conservative leaders like Manning and Harris and current Conservative party policy. 

Oh, and to this notion?  Stupid idea Paul.  As TDH Strategies wrote on April 7:

"NOTE TO PAUL MARTIN: If you and your crack team of political strategists (*gag*) think that playing the national unity card and linking the Tories with the BQ is going to be an adequate defence against sponsorship fraud, then be ready for your candidates to get slapped around by Canadian voters should an election be called."

April 14, 2005 - Yesterday was a perfect example of how inciting the fears of the Canadian public is not going to be too hard when it comes to the policies of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Paul Martin, facing a noose around his neck, with Stephen Harper Question Period inquiries such as "Has the Prime Minister ever had lunch with Claude Boulay (former president of the advertising firm Groupe Everest), yes or no?," fought back with a brilliant tactical move that clearly angered the Conservative leader:

"Why is it that the honourable member is refusing to address his hidden agenda on health care?  Canadian people are entitled to know what the Conservative position is and why did he send Mike Harris and Preston Manning out to do his bidding?"

And old and tired criticism?  Maybe.  But when you have former Reform Party leader Manning and former Ontario Premier Harris release a Fraser Institute sponsored document which advocates for:

"[t]he failed Canada Health Act, relying on penalties and public monopolies that stifle service to Canadians, must be scrapped...and replaced with a meaningful commitment to Canadians that unlocks freedom of choice, "

it is a strategy that still resonates with Canadians.

From that point Harper, who was clearly set off his game, responded by calling Martin a "national joke" before having to furiously defend in media scrums that his party does not support two-tiered health care and the elimination of the Canada Health Act, a document that seems untouchable in the minds of the Canadian electorate.

This is only the start.  The "scary" Tories, rightly or wrongly, are still an uncomfortable unknown in the minds of many Canadians.  Therefore, on issues that a) strike a chord with voters and b) lack clarity in the context of Conservative party policy, Martin has huge opportunities to exploit weakness and cause a wave of suspicion.

Will it be enough to counteract the bombshell testimony now being delivered by Jacques Corriveau concurrent to this commentary being typed?  It is hard to say.  But the Tories are sufficiently weak on a number of fronts, and when passion is involved and national values possibly threatened, Canadians tend to favour the devil that they know rather than the one they have yet to unleash.

April 13, 2005 - David Kilgour has just gone back to to his roots, and no Liberal in the country is really fretting the loss.  Members of the self-titled "God" caucus (Galloway, O'Brien, McTeague, Kilgour, etc.) haven't been comfortable within this party for years, and quite frankly, neither have the rest of us with some of the political stands they have taken.  Maybe this split, and the upcoming ones, are the best for both sides.

On the other hand, make it to five MPs crossing the floor, and TDH Strategies would put a fork in Paul Martin...because after that, he most certainly would be done.

April 13, 2005 - Only on the wacky left coast (just in case you thought the Marijuana Party was our greatest contribution to Canadian politics):

New provincial political party hopes to 'arouse' interest
Apr, 11 2005 - 8:00 PM

VANCOUVER(CKNW/AM980) -- Who says politics can't be titillating?

There's a new provincial party out there making its outing this week, and it has nothing but sex on its mind.

Amid Elections B.C.'s list of registered parties is the Sex Party - declaring itself to be the world's first.

Its leader is John Ince, who gained attention a couple of years ago for his involvement in a play that included a live sex act on stage.

Its platform includes a sexual education program that goes somewhat beyond the usual 'birds and the bees' lesson.

It also calls for public parks and beaches to have areas reserved for nudists.

As well, long term care homes would be required to make it easier for its residents to be amorous.

April 11, 2005 - This cartoon aptly demonstrates the latest happenings in Ottawa now that Paul Martin is back from Europe:

Martin is most definitely up a pole according to this just released EKOS Research Associates poll, which puts the Liberals at a frightening 25% support nationally, with the Tories pulling an incredible 36% (a 10% jump since February)!  This is a number that the government has NEVER seen since coming to power in 1993.  Now while polls immediately after an incendiary event such as the lifting of the ban on the Jean Breault's testimony must be looked at very cautiously (considering that their reactionary findings are not necessarily accurate for the long haul), these numbers are Martin's worst nightmare.

On the other hand, the salivating Tories are prone to showing their true colours on a consistent basis, as demonstrated by Warren Kinsella's post from yesterday, which is proof that the neo-cons are becoming scarier as their excitement for government grows.  The problem for Stephen Harper is that with wingnuts like this in his midst, the Liberals could commit armed robbery against every one of Canada's 32 million citizens, and still be more comfortable to the voting public than the offensive hate mongers that continue to fester on the right.

Martin hasn't exactly proven to be the most deft stick handler, and so marginal Liberal MPs like David Kilgour, who is now thinking of jumping back to the Tories (the party from which he defected in 1990) to protect his paycheque, are scared shitless.  If Harper can only get the fringes of his party to sit on their hands and shut their mouths, he might actually have a shot of taking this thing.

The likelihood of him being able to accomplish that are few and far between, however, meaning that the Liberals will continue to have more than a fighting chance when matched up against such blatant intolerance.

April 8, 2005 - Testimony given by Chuck Guité to the Public Accounts Committee last April regarding communications contracts he oversaw:

“There were many contracts with a local company, Earnscliffe, and I had interference from a minister's office, the Finance Department, which was Mr. Martin's office...” (click here to read the full article)

Last October, a document was uncovered detailing how one of Alfonso Gagliano's former aides had received a phone call from an unnamed official in Paul Martin's office to inquire why event organizers for a Montreal event had not heard from the public works department about their $600,000 request. 

In reality, they had received word, and their request had been denied. According to public works records, the event organizers got $250,000 subsequent to this phone call.

Who were the event organizers?  The most prominent member was former Montreal Canadians superstar Serge Savard, a huge Martin leadership backer, whose son was a Liberal candidate in the last election.

With Guité set to testify in front of the Gomery Pyle Commission in the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see if any other political staffers will join John Welch, Chief of Staff to Heritage Minister Liza Frulla, on paid leave from their jobs. 

April 7, 2005 - UPDATE:  With Justice Gomery Pyle's publication ban partially lifted, TDH Strategies can now report that several high level ministerial staff in Ottawa have recently either faced disciplinary action or been let go by the government.  No names will be mentioned...on this website at least, and readers will have to use their powers of deduction and reading comprehension to fill in the blanks.

April 7, 2005 - After today, this might not be necessary should the publication ban be lifted on Jean Breault's testimony at the Gomery Pyle Commission, but regardless, here's a riddle about some recent sponsorship related happenings in Ottawa:

"If current staff, made some gaffes, to avoid traction, the government takes action.  Names under oath, damage control growth, quiet, not momentous, what the Donald says on the Apprentice."

TDH Strategies figures it is going to be a very nerve-racking day for many in the government, as well as certain individuals who are getting newly acquainted with what talk show television is like in the middle of the afternoon.

If you still haven't got it yet, just drop TDH an email.

April 7, 2005 - Is it a surprise that Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty and federal Conservative leader Stephen Harper are having policy conversations over the phone?  No, not particularly.  McGuinty has a fiscal beef with the feds, and Harper has now convinced himself that he is headed for the Prime Minister's chair.  And to be honest, TDH Strategies agrees with Ontario Finance Minister Greg Sorbara when he says:

"If Mr. Harper wants to chime in on the issue, it's an important issue, it's a national issue and we welcome his voice."

But what in the hell is Sorbara thinking when he buttresses that viewpoint with this:

"Stephen Harper is doing a good job as leader of the Opposition.  He is a very good friend of Canada."

Sure the Ontario Liberals are not happy with Paul Martin, and yes, talking with the Leader of the Opposition about Ontario's $23 million funding gap goes beyond political labels.  But to stroke Harper like that on the eve of a possible election - WHY?  Here's a question for you to answer, Warren.  

April 7, 2005 - NOTE TO PAUL MARTIN: If you and your crack team of political strategists (*gag*) think that playing the national unity card and linking the Tories with the BQ is going to be an adequate defence against sponsorship fraud, then be ready for your candidates to get slapped around by Canadian voters should an election be called.

April 6, 2005 - A quote from a must-read Toronto Star article this morning:

"Spokespersons for all the parties concede that an election would be unpopular and that citizens could want to punish whichever party is blamed for not making the minority Parliament work."

Also:

"People's capacity for imagining might turn out to be greater than what the evidence actually says," Graves said [Frank Graves of the EKOS Research polling firm]. In that case, the Conservatives and Bloc could look like they're cynically whipping up public anger."

Now match these quotes up with a paragraph that TDH Strategies wrote just days ago:

"That being said, it is still uncertain as to the government toppling abilities of these latest revelations, and here is the logic behind this scepticism.  First, confirmation of a scandal that everyone suspected was completely true does not necessarily equate to gasoline being thrown on the fires of anger within the Canadian electorate.  TDH still firmly believes that the height of voters' interest and disdain with those responsible for the massive fraud occurred last June, when Stephen Harper and the Tories failed to run a campaign worthy of victory.  The Liberals instilled fear into Canadians about what the Conservatives represented, and that wedge of doubt has not gone anywhere." 

Regardless of what any hopeful Tory has to say these days, CANADIANS DO NOT WANT TO HAVE AN ELECTION.  And the hype that is being perpetrated by internet bloggers, the media and the opposition will most certainly not create as much of a buzz with the general public. 

The Tories would be a one-trick pony if an election were called in the very near future, and considering how Paul Martin hasn't done a bad job over the past year (yes, shocking as it it might seem, it is TDH Strategies writing that), the Tories would have to milk the sponsorship scandal to victory, a task that seems much harder today than it was last spring when it was fresh in the minds of every Canadian.

Has the Liberal name been badly damaged?  Well, it certainly isn't considered the most successful political brand in the Western world as it was just 6-7 years ago.  But once again, until there is a viable alternative that can really enamour the voters with more than hollow calls for a higher standard of ethics (take this SHOCKING headline on the front page of the Vancouver Sun, for example), then the Liberals should continue to squeak through at the polls and form government.

April 6, 2005 - In the "stories that surprise nobody" bin comes news that former Newfoundland and Labrador Premier and former federal cabinet minister Brian Tobin is leaving his job as MI Development's chief executive "to pursue other business opportunities."  And in similar fashion to his multiple departures from his job as a Member of Parliament, someone (last time the Canadian electorate, this time MI stockholders) is on the hook for his healthy escape payout - a $1.2 million US "retiring allowance."

Does this guy ever stick around in a job?  And, if he is so determined to become Canada's next Prime Minister, what assurance do Canadians have that he won't bolt for something easier, or better paying, should he end up actually winning?

Tobin is an opportunist of the worst kind, regardless of whether he happens to be functioning in personal (TDH will bite our tongues in regards to the innuendo that has circulated for years), professional or political matters.

April 5, 2005 - Here is the nasty response to TDH's email (see below) from Ed "the Captain" Morrissey, the Republican Minnesota-based author of the self-promoting blog which is flagrantly disrespecting the Gomery Pyle Commission and the laws of this country for personal gain:

-------- Original Message --------

Your country claims to be progressive, and yet in a fashion that resembles Castro's Cuba or the current Chinese regime, your press is restricted in order to protect criminals.

Have I benefited from exposing the truth?  Other than the site traffic, dealing with brainwashed Liberals like yourself has not exactly been pleasant.  This was done so that the Canadian public has access to all the facts, so that they can make an informed decision.

I have taken a look at your blog archives, and it is clear that blind support for Chretien has allowed you to become a pawn in spreading Liberal propaganda.  I do not claim to be on any one side of this scandal - the only thing I care about is preventing a socialist government from tricking an uninformed public.

If that means that I have to take down Canadian laws, so be it.

How does one respond to such ignorance?  Well, here are a couple of points in reply:

1) Much like the U.S. constitution, which is flawed because of the absence of textual codification of the presumption of innocence (the primary pillar of the American justice system), Mr. Morrissey fails to acknowledge the due process of law by referring to the accused as "criminals."  Yet, he ironically stands by the 3rd article of the U.S. Bill of Rights, which allows for freedom of the press.  I guess on the Captain's ship, he gets to pick and choose which rights are guaranteed, and for whom they apply to.

2) The words "progressive" and "Liberal" are so far out of the realm of understanding for a Republican blowhard like Mr. Morrissey that his attempts to slander TDH Strategies and this country are laughable.

3) Funny how you claim that site traffic is a secondary consideration to your concern for ensuring that "the Canadian public has access to all the facts" when every interview that TDH has heard Mr. Morrissey give over the past couple of days proudly brags of the sharp spike in visitors to his website.

4) For TDH Strategies, the issue with regards to the Gomery Pyle Commission (a term that Warren Kinsella has attributed this site with coming up with)  has never been about protecting the Liberals, but rather ensuring a fair process that is in the best interests of Canadians.  If the government topples, then it topples.  But spending $100 million on an inquiry that has up until this point shown little regard for conducting fair and omniscient proceedings is a process that was better left to the RCMP.

5) Your reference to a "socialist government" and the fact that you are willing to "take down Canadian laws" are perfect examples of why your fearless Republican hero George W. Bush is so despised around the world - he does what he wants, with absolutely no regard for the sovereignty of other nations.  Then, he hides behind his twisted views of what is "right", which is similar to your tactic in justifying your current actions.  Is this a strategy they teach you in the Republican "How to Be Offensive" handbook?

The publication ban is not useless, and just because this information is available due to *@%holes like this guy does not mean that Gomery should buckle to the pressure and reverse his earlier decision.  Most Canadians are disengaged from the day to day minutia of the inquiry, allowing fair and impartial juries to still be possible for the upcoming trials of Jean Breault, Paul Coffin and Chuck Guité.

We all need to get to the bottom of this scandal, but let's do it with respect for the Canadian justice system.

April 4, 2005 - This letter was just penned to the main offending blogger from the States:

-------- Original Message --------

Your indignance has been a nice traffic generator for your website, so I am sure that you are pleased as punch.  Why do you feel the need, however, to get involved in an issue that you have absolutely no stake in, nor had any interest in previous to the publication ban by Justice Gomery?

You are the type that exposes gruesome details of testimony given in cases like the Paul Bernardo trial, and then hides behind the lame excuse of fighting for freedom of the press. Well how about consideration for sovereign legal systems?  If a Canadian judge has deemed that the release of this testimony would unfairly prejudice the upcoming criminal trials of the accused, then why can't you have some measure of respect for the sanctity of that decision?

You disgust me, not only for your blatant disregard for Canadian law (something that your country has little regard for, as is the case with most other foreign nations), but more because of the fact that you won't admit that this was done for personal gain and exposure for yourself, having little to do with the content of the inquiry.

April 4, 2005 - Out of respect for the law, TDH Strategies will not be breaking the publication ban (unlike that Libertarian Minnesota website that shall remain nameless) by posting specific details about the unreleased testimony delivered by Jean Breault at the Gomery Pyle inquiry last week.  If any of this website's readers are dying to know, you can drop an email with specific questions, and we will try to fill in the gaps as best as possible.

The information from Breault is without a doubt very troubling.  And, from what TDH sources are reporting directly from Ottawa, while what has been revealed so far represents the past, what is on the horizon could touch the present.  In other words, the sponsorship scandal, and the individuals who were complicit with its perversion, may not all be figures from the former administration.

That being said, it is still uncertain as to the government toppling abilities of these latest revelations, and here is the logic behind this scepticism.  First, confirmation of a scandal that everyone suspected was completely true does not necessarily equate to gasoline being thrown on the fires of anger within the Canadian electorate.  TDH still firmly believes that the height of voters' interest and disdain with those responsible for the massive fraud occurred last June, when Stephen Harper and the Tories failed to run a campaign worthy of victory.  The Liberals instilled fear into Canadians about what the Conservatives represented, and that wedge of doubt has not gone anywhere. 

Which then leads into the next point.  For a change in government to occur, there not only has to be a backlash against the ruling party, but also an alternative choice waiting in the wings and able to capitalize on opportunity.  From what TDH has seen so far, Harper does not have the royal jelly to 1) overcome the wing-nut element of his party 2) assuage the inevitable questions about a hidden agenda 3) create more voter outrage with the sponsorship scandal that was present last year and 4) show Canadians that he would be suitable for the role of Prime Minister. 

Calgary Grit posted a sharp top-20 list of why Harper would not want to go to the polls right now, and TDH posted a commentary of why the Liberals would not fear going to the polls (scroll down to the March 29th entry found below), both of which clearly demonstrate that the sponsorship scandal is not the be all, end all of winning an election at this particular juncture.

Could the Liberals lose seats with this latest affair?  Well, against earlier and possibly premature predictions by this website, the answer is absolutely.  However, sounding the death knell of this government already is extremely premature, to say the least.

April 2, 2005 - UPDATE, 12:31am: To those, like Norman Spector and Sean Holman, who caught on to the spirit of April Fool's Day, congratulations.  And for those of you who took the story below seriously, here is the latest that TDH Strategies is hearing out of Ottawa...Stockwell Day will be formally announcing on Monday that he is crossing the floor to join Jack Layton's caucus.  Day is apparently attracted by the NDP's stance on same-sex marriage and Mr. Layton's moustache.

April 1, 2005 - TDH Strategies attended both the Paul Martin announcement at Whistler that the Canadian Tourism Commission was moving to Vancouver, as well as the private Laurier Club reception that took place last night.

And oh, what a couple of bombshells surfaced in the course of normal political banter.

First, everyone who was spoken to, both within the Prime Minister's Office and close to the Liberal party apparatus, is keen to go to the polls soon.  There is a particular optimism around the organizers in BC, who are just raring to go with news that former NDP premiers Glen Clark and Mike Harcourt HAVE BOTH CONFIRMED that they will toss their hats into the ring for the governing party.  And unlike their predecessor from the left, Dave Haggard, these two are being promised safe ridings and guaranteed cabinet posts (Harcourt to a new portfolio dealing with municipalities, and Clark getting Solicitor General).

Wait, it gets better...Hedy Fry is being asked to step aside for Harcourt, and Glen Clark is slated to take on NDP stalwart Libby Davies!  Harcourt has much appeal with the voters that have been turned off of Fry, and Clark's old stomping grounds overlap with Davies (plus his pedigree is just the kind of thing that would be able to knock off what was once thought of as an unwinnable riding).

TDH Strategies will provide more details over the coming weeks, as more information becomes available.