March 26, 2007 - I think that it is very telling that an across the pond description of Mario Dumont labels him as "Quebec's Jean-Marie Le Pen," referring to the French far-right nationalist politician that uses xenophobia as a political weapon. It is a scary prospect that Dumont is gaining favour for his notion of Quebec autonomy through his vision of a Quebec culture that does not embrace diversity.

With regards to Jean Charest, while most federalists across this country were hopeful at the beginning of this campaign, his record of a miserable four years in office has caught up to him. From fighting with the labour unions, to failing to keep his irresponsible promise to lower taxes, to presiding over one of the worst provincial health care systems in the country, to lying to the municipalities merged into the megacity, Charest has been a major disappointment. Thus, it was a little naïve to think that Harper's billions could save a man who has known that his political life would be in jeopardy on this day going back many, many years.

Watching Charest on television over the past week gave one the sense that his demeanour was representative of the knowledge that he couldn't win.

My prediction is that André Boisclair, through absolutely no skill of his own, will eke out a minute minority government after the polls close, which will save his job from the imminent arrival of Gilles Duceppe - for one year at the very least. However, without the legislative power or political personality to initiate a referendum, his job will constantly be on the line with a party full of hardliners just looking to knock him off.

The split between the ADQ and the Liberals will continue to fester ferociously, as both parties will begin to understand the parameters of having two strong presences that are opposed to a referendum on the scene. I would suspect that while Dumont's profile will rise as the true Leader of the Opposition (even if his party comes in third), the knives will immediately be out for Charest, who will likely never have another chance to fight for the premiership.

Unlike many, I don't predict doom and gloom after tonight's results - the national assembly will be too fractured for any one party to take decisive action. It is likely that with Dumont's Conservative and intolerant policies that oppose Quebec's natural tendencies, and Boisclair's lack of purpose beyond a referendum that he cannot bring forward, Quebec could be back at the polls in a year or two.

Another minority government - another recipe for gridlock and divisive politics.

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