March 27, 2007 - So much for my prognostication skills, as last night Jean Charest's political future got extended by the slightest of margins.

The rebuke received by André Boisclair and his Parti Québécois is historic, clearly indicating that tolerance for the concept of sovereignty is not only stalled, but rapidly shrinking through generational change. The sovereignists will place most of the blame on a man who initially won the leadership in 2005 with a 20% lead in the polls, and once again make the calls to Gilles Duceppe to rescue the movement. Yet, if there is complacency after replacing Boisclair simply as a result of a change being made at the top, the PQ will continue to hit the ceilng of their base of support, as the notion of independence is no longer seen as a worthwhile position by a significant majority of the electorate. The question is, how does the party now repackage a concept that is well past its best before due date - a raison d'etre that no longer seems relevant.

As pointed out by Chantal Hébert in her morning column, Jean Charest turned out to be a one-trick pony in his month of electioneering - the ability to procure readily available federal dollars isn't very impressive when compared to an "aimless and self-destructive" record in office. Mario Dumont is a man who is going to be pushing a new vision of autonomy for the province, which will manifest into a tough negotiating position when it comes to the federal government. But at the very least, the days of having veiled threats of a referendum insinuated into every negotiation are over.

For Stephen Harper, Dumont's success is a wildly exciting development that cannot be ignored. Charest's seats represent an endorsement of a federalist government; Dumont's newfound strength is an embrace of a new policy movement that is much closer to the Conservative government's vision for the country. This means that not only will Harper benefit from his ability to be perceived as a man who keeps his promises for la belle province, but he is now getting prepared to encounter a political landscape that has shown a new openness to his brand of governance.

The two questions that linger for me are as follows:

1) With the BQ ready to bleed a significant amount of their traditional support, will Stéphane Dion's presence box the Liberal party out of contention for those votes?

2) What will Harper use as his reason to go to the polls? It looks as though my prediction of a non-spring election are out the window with last night's turn of events, and thus now it is a matter of which issue will be the catalyst for Harper to drop the writ.

Interesting days ahead, folks.

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