March 19, 2007 - This is what this website has been saying for months now, generally tending to put me in the minority. Without the label of "expert" next to your name, however, one supposes that they don't take you as seriously.

A rumoured $15 million war chest hasn't been built up by Doug Finley and company just to pull off another minority government. Now this isn't to entirely suggest that an election isn't going to happen. It is just more ammunition to consider when contemplating Stephen Harper's motivations (particularly in light of Ipsos Reid's latest polling, which puts the Liberals at 34%, only two points behind the Conservatives - essentially a statistical tie).

That being said, Ipsos Reid also confirms that Stephen Harper should not be the target of Liberal attacks - polling which only amplifies what I have also been preaching for months.

The budget is going to be massive, not only in its spending stature, but also with its implications in influencing voter loyalties. This is the budget that Jim Flaherty will use as the Conservative party's blueprint to own the centre of the political spectrum, meaning that most measures will be designed to remove any doubts that might still linger around the Reform-style elements of the party. In fact, since the Fall of 2003, Flaherty's first budget could prove to be the single-most important event in convincing the electorate that the Progressive Conservative component of that merger won out.

Like Stephen Harper said to his troops over the weekend, today is the day that he and his government attempt to address "the unspoken interests of millions of working families" by worrying about "what they talk about at the kitchen tables," not the boardroom tables.

There is a lesson to be learned here, particularly when it comes to the OLO. Stories like this and this do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to build political momentum within the general public. While these angles might make political staffers give each other high fives amidst an atmosphere of smug and insulated self-satisfaction, these stories most certainly are not the topics that will be widely discussed around the kitchen tables of Canadians.

Back with some post-budget thoughts much later in the day.

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