January 4, 2006 - I had a couple of conversations yesterday with individuals who believe that this cabinet shuffle by Stephen Harper is an indication that a spring election is imminent. I, on the other hand, am not as convinced.

Craig Oliver on CTV last night stated that every cabinet shuffle is in some way an admission of fault or error. Thus, if thise shift is designed to profile new individuals, while at the same time reducing emphasis on others, I am inclined to think that Harper will want to give that process more than two or three months.

There is also the matter of the budget. First, Flaherty will probably have about $7-8 billion to play with come next month. Secondly, when you examine the five priorities that the Tories so glowingly promote to Canadians as now being fulfilled, the results in terms of real world, tangible effects is negligible at best. So while Harper might very well be the "great dismantler", I highly doubt that the Tories will want to go into an election campaign with the crumbs that he has at his disposal currently.

Personally, I think that Jim Flaherty is going to be spending. Now, while I do expect that there will be some REAL tax cuts thrown in there (as one of the abovelinked author so desperately pleads for), I think that Harper will want a bushel of goodies to promote to the public. A vacuous spring session with very little on the agenda will most likely be filled with political rhetoric more than actual legislation. This will allow for a summer full of campaigning and regrouping so that Harper can get his bearings once again, away from the surge of support that Stéphane Dion has recently represented for the Liberals.

Lastly, I challenge anyone to name the issue that would propel the Liberals or the BQ to bring down the government. The environment? Well, increased public attention and concern does not translate into the basis for an election, in my opinion. Afghanistan? No party is going to go and campaign on bringing the troops home, making most positions that are advanced during those 36 days nearly identical to each other. Program cuts? The $1 billion didn't hit anyone with enough of a voting bloc hard enough to warrant taking an early shot at electoral success.

Bottom line? No one is in a rush, and you can count me as one observer who sees Autumn as the earliest we will be heading back to the polls.

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