January 3, 2006 - Later on in the day I want to discuss the difficult to imagine scenarios that would bring us to an election campaign as soon as the spring - an outcome that I cannot see any party having great impetus to initiate in the near future. But for now, as promised, here are the TDH Top 10 Predictions for 2007:

10) Barrack Obama will take himself out of the running for the presidency of the United States.

9) After losing several seats in the election as a result of people only "lending" the NDP their vote in 2006, Jack Layton will be the biggest catalyst for a complete overhaul of the party by eventually vacating his post to begin a new leadership race. The party faithful will quietly agree that Layton had become nothing more than a huge disappointment.

8) Elizabeth May will become the first Green member of parliament, although she will sit alone in the House of Commons after the final results are tallied.

7) Stephen Harper will at the very minimum cruise through a very light legislative session in the spring marked by a budget full of goodies from various sectors. After using the summer to campaign on the BBQ circuit, he will be forced to engineer the defeat of his own government come October.

6) The United States will suffer the greatest loss of life in Iraq over any 3 month span throughout the war by the end of March, and will announce that a military evacuation will commence as early as 2008. This will be preceded, however, by one last ditch effort to "win the war" by sending in thousands of additional troops.

5) Stéphane Dion will lean heavily on his leadership competitors to flesh out the Liberal party's support across the country, particularly over the summer months. His honeymoon grace period will become little more than the margin of statistical polling error by March, but a dynamic platform of optimism, economic prosperity and collective responsibility will give the Liberals a significant boost when it is released in September. Dion will out adopt Harper's policy-a-day strategy in the fall, and will shine as a result, due to the the government's lack of ideas outside of their five priorities.

4) Rudy Giuliani will strongly outpace John McCain in the race for the Republican nomination. By the end of the year, McCain's advanced age and progressive social policies will relegate him to a contender without a hope in hell.

3) Steve Nash, amidst relentless fury within NBA circles, will win his third NBA MVP award in three years, cementing him as the greatest Canadian athlete in history next to Wayne Gretzky.

2) Things will come to a head between the Alberta government and the feds over the issue of equalization. The province's unbridled growth will force mild-mannered Ed Stelmach to pull a major power play á la Danny Williams just before the federal government breaks for the summer. Stephen Harper will face a fierce revolt over not being able to live up to his own promises, and will fight a fall election campaign with more than 50% of the premiers openly critical of the government's inaction.

1) Dalton McGuinty will win a majority government in Ontario, and solidify himself as the most bankable Liberal politician in the country. Jean Charest will shock the country and eke out a win, although by the smallest of margins. Stéphane Dion will use the extra months over the summer to boost his profile as a man of honour who Canadians can really rally behind, and will outflank Stephen Harper on most policy areas, showing that depth of idea and conviction really can sell at the polls. He will win a small minority government, and appoint Michael Ignatieff as Deputy Prime Minister, Bob Rae as Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Gerard Kennedy as the Minister of Health.

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